Handicapping the handicapping of the 2014 elections.
By SAM WANG May 27, 2014
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/05/the-war-of-the-senate-models-107132.html#ixzz331SpZPas
As the midterm election season heats up, politically inclined quantitative nerds like me have been trying to predict which party will end up in charge of the Senate. For us, it is the most suspenseful question of the year. Control could easily go either way.
Today, there’s a glut of forecasts out there, each one promising to be more accurate than the last. Their authors range from veteran handicappers like Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato to relative newcomers like the Monkey Cage and the Upshot. How to make sense of the free-for-all? You just need to keep a few basic principles in mind.
Polls tend to be scarce before Memorial Day, so early predictions of the November election outcome must rely on indirect indicators of how voters are likely to behave—what we call “fundamentals.” To make a sports analogy, these predictions are like a team’s initial seeding in a tournament. They just tell us who’s looking good at the outset of the campaign. Continue reading
Mar. 25, 2014 – 02:49PM |
By ANDY MEDICI |
U.S. Naval Academy mascot Bill the Goat spins a prize wheel at an anti-hunger charity booth during the Department of the Navy Combined Federal Campaign (CFC) kickoff ceremony at the Pentagon. CFC gives federal workers the opportunity to donate to any of more than 4,000 pre-screened charities. This year’s CFC season runs through Dec. 15. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Brett Cote/Released) (MC1 Brett Cote / Navy)
Combined Federal Campaign donations plunged 19 percent — about $49 million — from fiscal 2012 to 2013, according to numbers reported to the Office of Personnel Management by local campaigns.
The donation totals were compiled by the Workplace Giving Alliance, a collaboration of national and local federations and show federal employees and service members donated about $209 million in 2013 — down from $258.3 million in 2012.
That would be the lowest level in 15 years, when the CFC raised $206.4 million in 1998.
Sen Jon Tester added his voice to federal unions demanding a pay raise for federal employees that goes above the president’s planned 1 percent. (Mark Wilson / Getty Images)
Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., joined federal employee unions in demanding a bigger pay raise than for federal employees. President Obama plans to propose a raise of 1 percent in the administration’s upcoming budget request.
Tester said while he does not have a specific pay raise in mind, 1 percent was not enough and he would work with federal employee groups to push for a bigger raise.
He said he thinks Congress will approve some form of federal employee raise this year. Continue reading