The Romney conundrum: Winning independents but losing overall

By Christian Heinze – 09/19/12 12:00 AM ET

There are two competing factors at work for Mitt Romney among independents.

One is that he’s winning their vote, but the other is that they’re less enthused about voting, and that malaise is damaging Romney’s overall performance in polls.

Romney edges out President Obama among independents by 1.2 percentage points in Talking Points Memo’s aggregation of national polls, even though the president leads the GOP nominee, overall, by 3.9. That’s because independents tend to be less enthusiastic about voting than supporters of either party, and so they’re having a smaller effect on overall preference.

The phenomenon of Romney winning independents but losing overall is one that’s persisted since early in the cycle. When the general election effectively began in April, Romney led among independents in 12 of the first 14 surveys, even though he trailed in most of those polls among all voters.

That phenomenon continues to play out, even after both parties have completed their conventions. Since September began, Romney has led among independents in five major national polls, while Obama has led in just two. Continue reading “The Romney conundrum: Winning independents but losing overall”

President Obama’s electoral college edge



President Obama’s electoral college edge

Posted by Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake on September 12, 2012 at 6:30 am


President Obama maintains an edge in the race for 270 electoral college votes, according to a state-by-state Fix analysis, even as national polling suggests the race remains tight between the incumbent and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

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Since we last analyzed the national map in July, and despite the fact that Romney has picked his vice president and both parties have held their nominating conventions, there’s been no polling data or spending decisions compelling enough to move any state from its current rating of toss-up, lean Obama or lean Romney.

That means that Obama can count on 196 solid electoral votes and another 41 — in New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Michigan — that lean his way for a total of 237. Romney has 170 solid electoral votes and 36 — Arizona, Missouri and North Carolina — leaning his way for a total of 206. Continue reading “President Obama’s electoral college edge”

Romney campaign unveils first TV ad for swing-state Wisconsin

By Meghashyam Mali – 09/09/12 06:19 AM ET

Mitt Romney‘s campaign on Sunday unveiled its first television ad for Wisconsin, targeting President Obama on the economy.

The ad is the latest in a series titled “A better future” which are set to air in key battleground states.

The video opens with a clip of Romney from his Tampa, Fla. GOP convention address.

Romney campaign unveils first TV ad for swing-state Wisconsin. Continue reading “Romney campaign unveils first TV ad for swing-state Wisconsin”

Workers Memorial Day (April 28th)

Crossposted from Working America’s Main Street blog. Read a statement from Pres. McEntee here.

It’s Workers Memorial Day — a time to honor, or at least stop and think about, the workers who have lost their lives on the job. While the Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSHA) has greatly decreased the number of workplace deaths and injuries in the 40 years since it was passed, there are still too many.

Big explosions and disasters draw headlines and attention, but many more workers lose their lives in ways that don’t get widespread notice — but are no less painful for their families and friends. Continue reading “Workers Memorial Day (April 28th)”

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